A change in conditions can overturn a good operating model.
Report edition: 22 October 2026 · PDF page 21
I use Digital Younger Dryas to describe a scenario in which several assumptions supporting digital growth become unreliable at the same time. Software distribution needs investigation. Credentials must be withdrawn. A supplier becomes unavailable. The team has to maintain service while changing the foundations underneath it.
The historical Younger Dryas interrupted the transition out of the last glacial period. It involved a return to colder conditions across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with different responses elsewhere. NOAA describes evidence linking the episode to changes in ocean circulation and freshwater routing. Its value as an analogy is the possibility of rapid change in a connected system. It does not give us a timetable for technology. NOAA’s Younger Dryas overview ↗
The mammoth also needs historical care. Mammoths did not all disappear at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. A population on Wrangel Island survived until around 4,000 years ago; a 2024 genetic study left the final cause of its extinction unresolved. The illustration therefore represents environmental dependence and adaptation, rather than a simple story about cold weather killing a species. Stockholm University’s research summary ↗
For a business, that dependence includes much more than servers. It includes the identities that authorize work, the software channels that deliver changes, the providers that process transactions, and the people who know how to restore service. A company’s apparent strength can conceal a narrow set of dependencies.